by Richard Romano

Greetings from Chicago, as this blogger prowls the Graph Expo show floor in search of interesting items to rabbit on about.

Over at The Industry Measure blog, I discuss a session conducted by Dr. Joe Webb called “Graphic Arts 2017: A Speculative Look at the Graphic Arts a Decade from Today” (sponsored by WhatTheyThink and Man Roland). Dr. Webb gave his “data-driven” presentation on the current state of the economy (laterally moving) and the industry (likewise) before casting his eye forward a decade hence.

Dr. Webb provided an overview of the population, economic, and technological trends that will be driving the next 10 years. As it turns out, 2017 will be like 2007--only more so.

Some economic trends worth noting:

• emerging economies will emerge, and will likely cause the "leapfrogging" of technology--that is, cellphones will be implemented before traditional landline telephony, the Internet will be the go-to source for information rather than print, etc.
• e-commerce will likely no longer be called “e-commerce” as it simply becomes the way business is conducted
• rising global wealth will create longer-lived and healthier populations, and drive further interest in communications and other technologies

Some technological trends:

• connectivity will keep getting cheaper, and storage will at some point become essentially “free”
• The expectation that anyone can connect with anyone at any time will only become heightened—not good news for those of us who like to hide
• the iPhone, while not comprising any really “new” technology per se, is a James Burke-ian device that brought together a variety of communications and computing technologies and had the marketing acumen to make it a stepping stone for future devices

The content creation markets will continue to grow--although more companies will take more advantage of freelancers than W-2 (staff) employees. The great strides in computing technology (Macs, Adobe Photoshop, etc.) that have driven the past 15 years will drive the next 10 years (and beyond, natch), and will allow more traditional creatives to become involved in video editing, the same way that still image editing is done today.

As for publishers, the conversation will continue to center on the notion of "monetizing content," whatever that means. At the same time, the true key issue will be deploying content--that is, how to get content in all the forms that it is required to be in (iPhone, website, perhaps even print). If you think this sounds like the old 2000-era cross-media discussion, you're right.

The takeaway from the session was this: don't be scared of the future; be curious, and be a gadget guru. That is, personally using new and emerging media is the best way 1) to understand how these devices can and will be used in a business setting, and 2) to understand firsthand how the next 10 years may shake out.

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